000
WTPZ45 KNHC 012035
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007
 
A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER GIL NEAR 1400Z INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE NO MORE THAN 25 KT...AND PROBABLY LESS.  THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND IT IS LIKELY THAT GIL WILL NO
LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT A GENEROUS 25 KT.  THE REMNANT LOW STAGE OF THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY LAST FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION UNWINDS OVER
COOLER WATERS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...280/8.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLOW WEST
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 19.1N 121.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 19.3N 122.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 19.6N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.9N 126.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.2N 127.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 20.2N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE