000
WTPZ45 KNHC 011424
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007
 
GIL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SPORADIC CONVECTION THAT BARELY MEETS THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  OVERALL...IT SEEMS LIKE THE
CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THIS THINKING IS IN
LINE WITH DECREASING DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT.  A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  GIL SHOULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW...IF NOT SOONER.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST NOW...280/8. WEAK
RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF GIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAY AND FORCE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 18.8N 120.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N 121.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 19.3N 123.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.6N 125.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 19.9N 127.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 20.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE