000
WTPZ45 KNHC 010831
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007
 
GIL REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY LARGE CIRCULATION BUT WITH
RATHER SCANT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T1.5 OR 25 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER.  LIKE A FIELD GOAL SPLITTING THE UPRIGHTS...
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION OF GIL FELL SQUARELY IN THE GAP
BETWEEN QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES AT 0130 AND 0300 UTC.  GIVEN THE
CONFLICTING AND LIMITED DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
UNCERTAIN BUT IS HELD AT 30 KT.  SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH
THE CYCLONE ARE NEAR 27 CELSIUS BUT WILL GET GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK...SO A STEADY DECLINE IS FORECAST.  SINCE GIL
SHOULD REACH 24 CELSIUS WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME.
 
GIL AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH JUST A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT 8-9 KT IS FORECAST THROUGH FIVE
DAYS...IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 18.6N 120.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.7N 121.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 19.0N 123.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 19.4N 125.0W    25 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 19.8N 126.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 20.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     06/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB