000
WTPZ45 KNHC 301430
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
800 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
 
TIMELY AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER
OF GIL THIS MORNING...ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...
BUT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. EASTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO
HAVE PREVENTED ANY INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT...BUT GIL COULD ALREADY BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND.  A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STORM AND GIL'S BEST DAY IS PROBABLY
BEHIND IT.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...THOUGH THE
EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX SOMEWHAT TOMORROW.
 
MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT GIL HAS MOVED A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST
OVERNIGHT AT A SLOWER PACE...260/8.  THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME
ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO THE NORTH OF GIL.  THEREAFTER...A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD OCCUR AS GIL REACHES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.  A 96-HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS GIVEN DUE TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS HOLDING ONTO THE REMNANTS OF GIL FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 19.0N 113.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 18.9N 114.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 18.7N 116.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N 118.9W    30 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 18.4N 121.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 18.5N 125.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE