000
WTPZ45 KNHC 300857
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
200 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL HAS BEEN RATHER 
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING.  BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES FROM SSMI AND
AMSU-B...THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTH-
EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WHICH CONTAINS CLOUD
TOPS AROUND -80C.  BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  

GIL IS CURRENTLY UNDER ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  WHILE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM BETWEEN 26C
AND 27C...MODERATE SHEAR COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...
GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE. 

GIL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 270/11.  A STRONG MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD STEER GIL ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AS
THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...GIL SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS AND FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 19.4N 113.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 19.4N 114.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 19.4N 116.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 19.2N 119.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 18.9N 121.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI