000
WTPZ45 KNHC 300231
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2007
 
LATEST CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GIL
HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. IN FACT...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IMPLYING A POORLY ORGANIZED CYCLONE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL ADVISORY
INTENSITY. GIL IS LOCATED WITHIN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
CONSISTING OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR
MASS.  ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING AND GIL IS LIKELY
AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS
FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. THEREAFTER...
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH GIL DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3
DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. 
 
GIL APPEARS TO BE MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
270/12. THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE MAINTAINS SOME VERTICAL
DEPTH. BEYOND 24 HOURS...GIL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROGRESSIVELY
SHALLOW SYSTEM WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS
IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 19.6N 112.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 19.8N 113.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 19.9N 115.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 19.8N 118.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 19.6N 120.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N 124.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME