000
WTPZ45 KNHC 292030
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2007

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE DURING THE DAY.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE INTENSE...THOUGH RECENTLY HAS WANED
A BIT. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM MASS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMSU AND LOCAL OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER.
THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GIL...THE
SEVENTH STORM IN A RATHER QUIET EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. A
LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE STORM MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS.
 
THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE...NOW
ESTIMATED AT 285/10.  THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD FORCE A MOTION MORE TO
THE WEST BY LATE TOMORROW.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 19.7N 110.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 20.2N 118.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N 122.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE