000
WTPZ45 KNHC 291441
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2007
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED
BANDING FEATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF 2.0...30 KT...WAS RECEIVED FROM TAFB
AND SHIP ZQCP3 ALSO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1002.6 MB. DATA FROM THE
MEXICAN NAVY SITE AT SOCORRO ISLAND HELPED TO DETERMINE THE
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON ALL OF THE DATA...THIS
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM
TO BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE
SHIPS MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8.  GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A LARGE
MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES.  THIS STEERING PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE MORE TO THE WEST WITH TIME AWAY FROM MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS MODEL AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 19.4N 109.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.8N 110.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 20.2N 112.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N 115.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 20.5N 117.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N 121.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE