000
WTPZ45 KNHC 151443
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052007
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT RESUMED SHORTLY AFTER 06Z HAS PERSISTED...
BUT IT HAS BEEN POORLY ORGANIZED AND ESSENTIALLY CONFINED TO A
CLUSTER ANCHORED ABOUT 60 N MI WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. 
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS AT 12Z WERE 1.0 AND 1.5...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS HEADED TOWARD COOLER
WATERS...PROBABLY LESS THAN 25 CELSIUS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND
THE WIND SHEAR MIGHT INCREASE A LITTLE TOO...SO THE AMOUNT OF DEEP
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS
RELATIVELY SMALL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY MEET ITS ULTIMATE DEMISE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHEN IT OR ITS REMNANT LOW
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE MUCH LARGER TD 6-E
CURRENTLY SITUATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST.

TD 5-E APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING AT ABOUT 285/12 DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...BASED ON GOES SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN AMSR-E
OVERPASS AT 0930Z.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES IN BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND TD 6-E TO THE SOUTH.  THAT WESTERLY
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW
DISSIPATES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 16.8N 119.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 17.2N 124.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 17.2N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB