000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150234
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052007
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E LOOKS QUITE SICK. ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE LOW CLOUD LINES INDICATE THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED AND ELONGATED.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  HAVING SAID
THAT...THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER AND STILL HAS TONIGHT'S
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM AHEAD OF IT.  ONE MORE BURST OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE DEPRESSION ENTERING A RATHER
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR...COLD WATER...AND STABLE AIR
TOMORROW.  DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED IN A DAY OR
SO...IF NOT SOONER.
 
GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION...TRACKING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BEEN DIFFICULT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER
UNCERTAIN 285/12.  A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 15.9N 117.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N 118.9W    25 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N 121.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.3N 123.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME