000
WTPZ45 KNHC 142111
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052007
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007

THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
THIS MORNING...AND THE CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NEAR THE
NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1346 UTC
SHOWED UN-FLAGGED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT.  DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
30 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED
BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE UKMET
MODEL...WHICH INITIALIZED THE CYCLONE THE BEST. 

DESPITE THE WARM 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER...10 TO 15 KT OF NORTHERLY
SHEAR IS INHIBITING FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME.  THE CYCLONE HAS ABOUT A 12 TO 24 HOUR WINDOW TO INTENSIFY TO
STORM STRENGTH BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS...WHEN IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 16.2N 116.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.7N 117.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.9N 120.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.8N 122.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 16.6N 123.7W    30 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N 126.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI