000
WTPZ45 KNHC 141439
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052007
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007
 
DEEP CONVECTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONSOLIDATED THIS MORNING.  EARLY
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY EXPOSED CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM 1200 UTC WERE
2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED FOR TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE-E.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS LOSE THE
VORTEX IN LESS THAN TWO DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE
MARGINAL SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.
 
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER AND UNDER 10 KT
OF NORTHERLY SHEAR.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THESE TWO FACTORS CAN AID
THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER AS THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE OCEAN
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 25 OR 24
DEGREES CELSIUS.  THIS INHIBITING FACTOR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 15.5N 114.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 17.6N 124.8W    30 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 130.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI