000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230840 TCDEP4 Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Roslyn is nearing west-central Mexico this morning, with a cloud pattern that is becoming a little less organized with a more obscured eye. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has provided valuable data this evening, despite severe turbulence, showing that the hurricane hasn't lost much strength, with flight-level and SFMR winds both supporting a current intensity of 110 kt. This intensity also matches a slightly higher central pressure of about 958 mb, up just a few mb since the last reconnaissance mission. Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery show that Roslyn has turned to the north-northeast and is moving faster, at about 14 kt. The hurricane should continue to accelerate and make landfall in the next several hours, likely in northern Nayarit, similar to the track models. There isn't much time left for any increase in shear to affect Roslyn, and the hurricane is expected to make landfall at about its current strength. Rapid weakening will occur over the mountainous terrain of western Mexico later this morning, and Roslyn should lose its circulation this evening. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. Roslyn is forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico within the next several hours, accompanied by damaging winds and a life-threatening storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 21.1N 106.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 23.2N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake