000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200842 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 The circulation associated with the cyclone does not appear to have tightened up yet, and the center is estimated to be located between two primary clusters of deep convection. Dvorak classifications are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB, and the objective ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS is just below tropical storm intensity. Therefore, the system remains a depression with maximum winds estimated to be 30 kt. TAFB and SAB center fixes suggest the depression isn't moving very fast. The initial motion is westward, or 275/3 kt, with the system just beginning to move along the southern edge of a mid-tropospheric high centered near the mouth of the Gulf of California. This high is expected to slide eastward across Mexico during the next 3 days, while a deep-layer area of low pressure moves very little well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The cyclone should slowly recurve around the western periphery of the high, eventually moving northward near the west-central coast of Mexico by Saturday night and then accelerating north-northeastward over Mexico on Sunday. There is a typical amount of spread among the track models for this forecast, with most of the discrepancies related to how wide and fast a turn the cyclone makes while recurving around the high. The NHC official forecast favors a more intense cyclone that makes a tighter, faster turn, and it lies closest to the solutions of the GFS, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA consensus aid. This forecast essentially lies on top of the previous NHC prediction. An environment of negligible deep-layer shear, very warm ocean temperatures, and sufficient atmospheric moisture should support steady strengthening in the coming days. The cyclone's peak intensity will likely be dictated by exactly how long the system will be over water before reaching land, and it could also be modulated by some increase in shear in about 3 days. For continuity's sake, the NHC intensity forecast is mostly unchanged from the previous prediction, and it most closely follows the HCCA intensity solution, which is near the upper end of the guidance envelope. After the system moves inland, rapid weakening is expected, and the low-level circulation is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by early Monday. Global model fields indicate that the mid-level remnants will continue northeastward across northern Mexico on Monday. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane before it passes near or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge. Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system, and hurricane or tropical storm watches could be required for portions of this coastline later today. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.1N 101.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.3N 102.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 15.6N 103.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 16.1N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 16.8N 105.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 19.4N 106.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 23.4N 104.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg