000
WTPZ44 KNHC 182035
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142022
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022
 
Madeline still has an asymmetric convective pattern, with a large 
burst of deep convection mainly confined to the southwestern 
quadrant due to deep-layer easterly shear.  Visible satellite 
images also suggest that there are several low-level swirls 
rotating around a common center.  Intensity estimates have not 
changed since this morning, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. 
Moderate to strong easterly shear is expected to continue for the 
next couple of days, and Madeline is also forecast to reach the 
cold ocean wake of former Hurricane Kay by late Monday.  There is 
some chance for slight strengthening before Madeline reaches the 
cold wake, but overall little change in intensity is forecast 
during the next 24 hours.  Weakening is anticipated after that 
time, and model-simulated satellite imagery indicate that Madeline 
should lose all of its deep convection, and hence become 
post-tropical, by 48 hours.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 335/7 kt.  Track 
model guidance is in good agreement that Madeline will turn 
west-northwestward on Monday, and then westward by Tuesday night, 
when the weakening cyclone will come under the influence of 
lower-level steering winds.  The new NHC track forecast, which is 
just a bit to the southwest of the morning prediction, anticipates 
that Madeline will turn and move away from the coast of Mexico, 
including the southern Baja California peninsula, during the next 48 
hours.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal
southwestern Mexico into Monday.  This rainfall may produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for the southwestern
coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes through this 
evening.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 18.8N 107.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 19.7N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 20.4N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 20.9N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 21.3N 112.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  21/0600Z 21.5N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1800Z 21.6N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1800Z 21.4N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1800Z 21.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Berg