000
WTPZ44 KNHC 082042
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Howard Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022
 
Howard has continued to become better organized today, with an eye 
now making an appearance on infrared and visible satellite imagery. 
A 1433 UTC SSMIS pass indicated that deeper convective banding 
surrounded the center more so than it did in the earlier AMSR-2 
microwave pass. The latest subjective intensity estimates are 65 and 
77 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The above data support 
raising the current intensity to 70 kt.  A slight adjustment to the 
wind radii was performed based on recent ASCAT passes.

Howard is still moving northwestward at 315/11 kt. The track 
guidance remains in good agreement that the northwestward motion 
will continue into Tuesday, as Howard is steered by a mid- to 
upper-level ridge to its northeast. After that time, the cyclone 
should gradually turn west-northwestward as the cyclone becomes 
more vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the 
low-level trade wind flow. Only a slight adjustment to the left was 
made to the track forecast for this advisory. The NHC track lies 
between the middle of the guidance envelope and the previous 
official forecast.

Howard likely has about another 12 hours to strengthen before it 
crosses the 26 C sea surface temperature (SST) isotherm. After that 
time, progressively cooler SSTs and drier mid-level air should cause 
weakening. By 60 h, Howard is forecast to lose its convection and 
become post-tropical. The NHC intensity forecast has been increased 
during the first day to better match current intensity trends and 
the latest IVCN and HCCA intensity guidance, but then falls in line 
with the previous NHC forecast from 36 h onward. It should be noted 
that the GFS-SHIPS rapid intensification guidance indicates a 32 
percent chance of a 20 kt increase during the next 12 h, so it is 
possible that the 12 h intensity forecast could be somewhat 
conservative.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 20.6N 114.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 21.5N 115.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 22.6N 117.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 23.4N 119.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 24.0N 120.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 24.5N 122.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  11/1800Z 24.7N 123.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z 24.9N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Papin/Pasch