000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052034 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 SSMIS microwave data received after the release of the previous advisory showed that the eye of Bonnie became less defined than overnight. Although the eye is still evident in visible imagery, it is less distinct in infrared satellite pictures than early today. The surrounding cloud tops remain quite cold and subjective Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB are unchanged from this morning. As a result, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt for this advisory. Moderate northeasterly shear over the cyclone is likely to prevent additional strengthening and little overall change in intensity is expected through early Wednesday. After that time, gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and lower mid-level humidity is likely to result in slow weakening. The pace of weakening is expected to hasten in 60-72 h when Bonnie crosses the 26C isotherm and moves into a drier and more stable air mass. Steady-to-rapid weakening is then expected through the remainder of the period and Bonnie is forecast to become post-tropical by day 5. Bonnie is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. There continues to be no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Bonnie west to west-northwestward throughout the entire forecast period. However, some reduction in forecast speed is forecast during the next day or two as the ridge weakens slightly. Later in the period, a faster forward speed is forecast when Bonnie weakens and is steered more by the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC forecast track is slightly faster than the previous advisory beyond 72 hours, but remains in best agreement with the multi-model consensus aids. Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for another day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 15.5N 105.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 15.9N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 16.3N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 17.4N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 18.8N 120.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 20.5N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown