000
WTPZ44 KNHC 050243
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Bonnie continues to gradually 
strengthen this evening.  A 0112 UTC SSMIS microwave pass reveals a 
compact inner core with an eye less than 10 nm.  Upper-level outflow 
and convective banding appears to be fairly well-defined over the 
western and southern quadrants of the storm.  Subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates range from 77 kt to 90 kt. The initial intensity 
has been increased to 90 kt in favor of the higher estimate, based 
on increasingly cold cloud tops near the core.

Bonnie is expected to be in a relatively conducive environment for 
the next day or so.  Based on current satellite trends, some 
additional strengthening seems likely.  However, most of the 
intensity guidance does not show significant intensification beyond 
24 hours, possibly due to the moderate vertical shear in the 
near-storm environment.  By Wednesday, the wind shear is expected to 
decrease, but lower mid-level relative humidities and cooling sea 
surface temperatures should become a limiting factor.  Therefore, 
the official forecast shows some additional short-term strengthening 
followed by gradual weakening.  This forecast is slightly higher 
than the previous advisory for the first 24 hours.

The storm has jogged a little to the north in the past few hours, 
but the longer-term motion is still west-northwestward at 14 kt.  
Bonnie is being steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north and 
north-northeast which is expected to build westward and keep the 
system on a general west-northward trajectory.  The NHC track 
prediction is shifted slightly north of the previous one on account 
of the shorter-term northward shift, and is very near the consensus 
model forecast.
 
Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 14.5N 101.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 15.5N 105.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 15.8N 108.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 16.1N 110.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 17.1N 115.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 19.7N 126.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci