166 WTPZ44 KNHC 032040 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 Convective banding associated Bonnie has continued to increase since the previous advisory, with the primary band now wrapping completely around the estimated center. Visible satellite imagery and a recent ATMS microwave overpass suggest that the inner core also continues to become better established. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 65 and 55 kt, from TAFB and SAB respectively, and UW/CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates have increased to a little above 55 kt. Based on the these data, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt for this advisory. The outflow over Bonnie is still somewhat restricted over the eastern portion of the circulation owing to some moderate easterly shear. The shear, however, is not likely to be strong enough to prevent strengthening, and with warm SSTs and a moist atmosphere ahead, Bonnie is forecast to steadily intensify during the next 36 hours or so. The NHC intensity forecast now calls for a little faster rate of strengthening during the first day or so, but shows a similar peak intensity as the previous advisory as northeasterly shear is expected to increase over the system between 48 and 72 hours. After that time, decreasing SSTs and a drier mid-level environment are likely to cause gradual weakening late in the period. The updated intensity forecast is close to the ICON consensus aid, but is a little below the SHIPS and HWRF guidance. Bonnie is moving west-northwestward or 285/15 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Bonnie is forecast to remain on a west-northwestward heading to the south of a mid-level ridge over the next several days, and this motion will steer Bonnie generally south of, but parallel to, the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the NHC track lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala through tonight and southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 12.3N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 13.0N 96.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 13.8N 99.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 102.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 15.3N 105.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 15.7N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 16.0N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.6N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 17.7N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown