000
WTPZ44 KNHC 192038
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
 
Dolores's circulation, and the associated weather, continue to move 
farther inland over west-central Mexico, but it's hard to tell how 
much of a surface circulation remains over the mountainous 
topography of the region.  Deep convection continues to develop near 
the estimated center, likely with the help of some orographic lift 
of onshore flow.  Based on a typical decay rate over land, Dolores's 
intensity is set at 45 kt, but there is higher-than-normal 
uncertainty in this estimate given the effects of the terrain.

The heading remains toward the north-northwest (345 degrees), but 
the speed has increased to 15 kt, likely due to the mid-level 
circulation rotating around a mid-level low centered near Socorro 
Island.  If the surface circulation has not yet been mangled by the 
mountainous terrain, it will soon, and the mid-level circulation 
should then continue north-northwestward through tonight.  The 
new NHC forecast shows continued rapid weakening and depicts 
Dolores as a remnant low in 12 hours, but in reality the 
circulation may have dissipated by that time.  This forecast 
reasoning follows the quick dissipation of vorticity indicated in 
the global model fields.
 
Even though Dolores is moving farther inland, the coastal watches 
and warnings are being maintained on this advisory until there is 
no longer a threat of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within the 
tropical storm warning area and will spread farther inland across 
west-central Mexico through tonight.
 
2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and 
southern Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 20.3N 104.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  20/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg