000
WTPZ44 KNHC 270836
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with
Olaf is rapidly deteriorating due to the effects of southwesterly
shear and cold water. The low-level center is becoming elongated and
the remnant convection is well removed from the center. Based on a
recent ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. Global
models indicate that the cyclone will continue to decouple fast, and
most likely the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low later
today, and into a trough of low pressure in a day or two.

The overall circulation is moving toward the northeast at 10 kt.
However, as the system becomes a shallow cyclone or a trough in
about a day, it will be steered west-southwestward by the low-level
flow associated with an eastward moving high pressure system to the
north of Olaf.  The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and
it follows the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 26.4N 136.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 27.0N 134.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 27.0N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1800Z 26.2N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0600Z 25.5N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila