000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150837 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the past several hours. A large area of convection remains near the center, with some banding features noted in the northwestern quadrant. The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt in agreement with the TAFB/SAB Dvorak values and ASCAT data. The large-scale environment seems favorable for strengthening over the next several days with low wind shear, very warm water and moist mid-level conditions likely in the cyclone's path. Thus strengthening is predicted, similar to the previous forecast, and the official forecast is near the intensity consensus. Rapid intensification seems like a reasonable possibility in the next few days if the cyclone develops an inner core, and a few models are showing the cyclone as a major hurricane in the 3-5 day time frame. Although a hurricane that strong would be quite rare so far west in the eastern Pacific in late October, this season's storms have peaked quite a bit farther west than typical, so this scenario should be mentioned. A pair of ASCAT passes indicates that the center of the depression was a bit farther north than geostationary satellite suggested, although the initial motion remains west, now at about 14 kt. This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is still expected for the system during the next couple of days while the subtropical ridge remains in place but weakens. After that time, the cyclone should gradually turn toward the northwest due to a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough. Model guidance remains in good agreement, and the official forecast is basically an update of the previous one, with a slight northward adjustment to account for the initial position change. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.2N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 10.0N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 9.9N 123.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 9.9N 125.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 9.9N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 10.6N 130.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 12.1N 133.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake