000
WTPZ44 KNHC 040847
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015

Kevin continues to produce a cluster of convection near the center
with cloud tops colder than -80C.  However, cirrus cloud motions in
infrared satellite imagery suggest that southerly vertical wind
shear is increasing over the cyclone, and an AMSU overpass at 0458
UTC suggests the low-level center is near the southern edge of the
convection.  The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend
of intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite
consensus technique.

The initial motion is 360/7.  Kevin should move generally northward
for the next 12-24 hours.  After that time, the dynamical guidance
suggests that the top and the bottom of the cyclone will part
company, with the mid- to upper-level center continuing northward
and the low-level center turning northwestward and then
west-northwestward. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track through 48 hours and lies near the various consensus
models.  After that time, it is nudged a little northward due to a
northward shift in the track guidance.

The forecast track takes Kevin over decreasing sea surface
temperatures in an environment of increasing shear.  This
combination should cause steady weakening after 12 hours, with Kevin
forecast to weaken to a depression in about 36 hours an to
degenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter.  The new intensity
forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 20.2N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 21.2N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 22.2N 116.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 22.9N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 23.4N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 24.0N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven