000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012041 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 Conventional satellite imagery shows that the system has not become better organized and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicates that the cyclone remains at depression strength. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. The environment is expected to be only marginally conducive for some intensification during the next couple of days. An amplifying mid- to upper-level trough situated to the northwest of the depression is forecast to produce modest southwesterly shear during the next couple of days. Beyond the 48 hour period, the depression will be moving into a significantly more stable and drier air mass which should induce a more rapid decay of the cyclone. The official intensity forecast is close to the IVCN intensity consensus and the Florida State Superensemble and is essentially an update from the previous advisory. The initial motion is northwestward or, 320/8 kt. The cyclone is expected to gradually move between a mid-level high pressure system over Mexico and the aforementioned deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula during the next 2-3 days. Beyond the 72 hour period, the depression is expected to degenerate into a shallow, weak, system and is likely to meander in very weak low-level steering currents southwest of the Baja California peninsula until dissipation. The NHC forecast is a little bit faster than the previous advisory and follows the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) consensus closely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 13.7N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.1N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 16.8N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 20.1N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 22.4N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 24.0N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts