000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010238 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 900 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015 There has been little overall change in the cloud pattern of the depression this evening. The system is producing some very deep convection over the southern portion of the circulation, with only slight evidence of banding features. Upper-level outflow is rather limited at this time, and mainly over the southern semicircle of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is kept at 30 kt, which is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The environment is expected to be only marginally conducive for intensification over the next day or two. A large upper-level trough to the northwest of the tropical cyclone should produce 15 to 20 kt of vertical shear on the cyclone for the couple of days. This could allow for some slow strengthening during the next 36 to 48 hours, as shown in the official intensity forecast. Late in the period, however, the shear is forecast to become prohibitively strong and the system is likely to degenerate into remnant low in 5 days or less. The center is not easy to locate but based on the last-light visible images, the motion is estimated to be 290/8. A mid- tropospheric ridge currently to the north of the depression is forecast to shift gradually eastward while a trough becomes established to the west of California and the northern Baja California peninsula. This evolution of the steering pattern is likely to result in the cyclone turning northward and then north- northeastward. By the end of the forecast period, however, the cyclone will likely have become quite shallow and consequently move very slowly within the weak low-level environmental flow. The official track forecast is based largely on a dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 12.4N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 13.2N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 14.6N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 16.3N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 18.1N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 20.8N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 22.7N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 23.4N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch