000
WTPZ44 KNHC 100832
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013
200 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013
 
A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NARDA CONTINUES TO
CLING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT STRONG SHEAR
AND DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN NARDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.
 
THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 240/02...AND A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS NARDA IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 16.4N 128.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 16.1N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  11/0600Z 15.6N 130.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0600Z 14.5N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN