000
WTPZ44 KNHC 092052
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013
200 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013
 
NARDA CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND IS THUS CLINGING TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS FOR NOW.  ALSO...A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES
THAT NARDA HAS NOT WEAKENED QUITE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED
AND THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 30 KT.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A STABLE AIR MASS AND THE SHIPS OUTPUT
INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM... WEAKENING AND
DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW ARE FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
THE CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT MY BEST GUESS IS THAT
IT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS
STATIONARY.  NARDA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...ARE LIKELY TO SOON BEGIN
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADEWIND FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT
GIVEN BY THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 16.9N 128.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/1800Z 16.1N 129.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/0600Z 15.7N 130.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1800Z 15.1N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH