000
WTPZ44 KNHC 091443
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013
800 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013

A LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN NARDA AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY CYCLE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
FALL AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 25 KT.  THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH...ALONG WITH SOME SHEAR...SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING.  NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE
TO A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE IN 2-3 DAYS.
 
NARDA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
LATER TODAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.  THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 16.9N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 16.7N 128.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/1200Z 16.3N 129.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/0000Z 15.8N 130.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1200Z 15.3N 131.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE