000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090836
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013
200 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013
 
A BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF NARDA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THIS SMALL
AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...THE CYCLONE IS
MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A BIT LONGER.  RECENT ASCAT
DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AROUND 30 KT.  NARDA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS
AND WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...AND
NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS
MORNING AND DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS.
 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES AND THE ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT NARDA HAS
SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED WESTWARD.  THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 16.8N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 16.8N 128.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/0600Z 16.3N 129.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/1800Z 15.9N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0600Z 15.4N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z 14.8N 133.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN