000
WTPZ44 KNHC 081431
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013
 
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES...CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DECREASED THIS
MORNING...AND OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONSEQUENTLY
FALLEN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT... WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
 
THE UNEXPECTED WEAKENING OF NARDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS APPEARS
TO BE THE RESULT OF AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...AND
INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...
AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
NARDA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A
LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES.  THE UPDATED TRACK FORECST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 15.6N 126.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 16.1N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 16.3N 128.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 16.4N 129.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 16.4N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1200Z 16.0N 133.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z 15.5N 135.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN