000
WTPZ44 KNHC 251435
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013
 
COOL WATER AND STABLE AIR ARE TAKING A TOLL ON IVO...AS THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING THIS
MORNING.  NEARLY ALL OF THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA.  IVO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  IVO SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/8 KT.  IVO IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT
TIME...THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHWARD IN
THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
 
MOISTURE FROM IVO CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 25.1N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 26.1N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1200Z 26.7N 115.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0000Z 26.7N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1200Z 26.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN