000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230232 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION...AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WHERE HEAVY RAINS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND IT HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE CIRCULATION REACHES THE COOLER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IN FACT...NONE OF THE MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE ABOVE 40 TO 45 KNOTS DURING THAT PERIOD. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE LONG TERM MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND IS HEADING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 4 DAYS...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NHC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND HAS GIVEN A LITTLE LESS WEIGHT TO THE GFS WHICH SHOWS A TRACK CLOSER TO THE PENISULA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE COULD BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 17.9N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 18.7N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 20.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 21.5N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 26.0N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 28.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 28.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA