000
WTPZ44 KNHC 222034
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
200 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING.  THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED
JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND
THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE HELD STEADY AND THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.  THERE IS A RELATIVELY SHORT
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...SINCE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY IN 48 HOURS
OR LESS.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION...330/5...CONTINUES.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYLONE...AND TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CAUSED BY A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST AND THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST...AND SLOWER.
 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD BEGIN SURGING
NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 17.7N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 18.5N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 19.7N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 21.1N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 22.7N 114.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 25.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1800Z 27.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1800Z 27.5N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH