000
WTPZ44 KNHC 221450
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
800 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013
 
DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN
LUCAS...AND IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A BAND
THAT WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...BUT IT HAS A
DISTINCT WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM MEETS THE
QUALIFICATIONS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 30 KT BASED MAINLY ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 48 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
IT REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE COULD ARGUE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...AND
INDEED ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A LOW- TO
MODERATE-STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS.  WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO THE COLDER WATER...
STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE CYCLONE COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY
DAY 4.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS MOVING TOWARD
A BREAK IN THE RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 115W AND 130W.  A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BREAK IN THE
RIDGE IN PLACE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGES...WITH SOME MODELS MOVING THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA COAST AND OTHERS
TURNING IT SOUTHWESTWARD.  DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND WEAKENING
STEERING CURRENTS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON DAY 5.
 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD BEGIN SURGING
NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 17.5N 111.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 19.2N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 20.5N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 21.9N 114.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 25.0N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG