000
WTPZ44 KNHC 070251
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
 
A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DALILA EARLIER...BUT THE LAST SIGNIFICANT BURST
DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE ERICK IS
SQUELCHING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DO SO ACCORDING TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER...IT WILL LIKELY BE
DESIGNATED A REMNANT LOW.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER IF NO NEW CONVECTION
REFORMS SOON.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND
IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL INTENSITY OUTPUT.
 
DALILA DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
BUT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED ITS HEADING TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-
SOUTHEAST MORE RECENTLY.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE OR ITS
REMNANTS GRADUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE ERICK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FIRST MOVING
EASTWARD AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS GENERALLY
LEFT OR NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 16.8N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 16.8N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/0000Z 16.9N 112.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/1200Z 17.4N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN