000
WTPZ44 KNHC 060837
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
 
STUBBORNLY...DALILA REFUSES TO FADE. THIS EVENING...PERHAPS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE. THUS THE ANTICIPATED DEGENERATION OF DALILA INTO A REMNANT
LOW IS DELAYED...TEMPORARILY. BECAUSE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A COOLER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS...THIS REFOUND CONVECTION IN DALILA SHOULD NOT BE
LONG-LASTING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
 
DALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE HAS NEARLY COLLAPSED.  EITHER
A CONTINUED VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OR ERRATIC MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 17.0N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/0600Z 17.0N 113.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA