000
WTPZ44 KNHC 060240
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
 
DALILA NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED...SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS AS SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THE GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE. SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISSIPATED SINCE
ABOUT 18Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. BECAUSE OF
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A
COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS...LONG-LASTING DEEP CONVECTION IN DALILA
IS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

DALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS QUITE WEAK.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 17.1N 112.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 17.1N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/0000Z 17.1N 113.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 17.1N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z 17.2N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z 17.5N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA