000
WTPZ44 KNHC 050836
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
 
DALILA STUBBORNLY PERSISTS IN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH
IN A LIMITED AREA...DESPITE THE 12-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR AND MINIMAL 27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  A PERFECTLY PLACED
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0424Z INDICATED ABOUT 30 KT PEAK WINDS
FOR THE SYSTEM...MATCHING A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE
CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES.  DALILA MAY HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18
HOURS OR SO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL
STORM ERICK...DRY STABLE AIR...AND COOLER SSTS CAUSE THE CONVECTION
TO CEASE FOR GOOD.  AFTERWARDS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS A
REMNANT LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.  THE FORECAST MAINTAINS DALILA
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE ASCAT PASS ALSO PROVIDED FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE
POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF DALILA...WHICH IS WEST AT 7 KT. THE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
OF SPEED...PRIMARILY BY A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS
NORTH OF DALILA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 17.2N 111.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 17.3N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 17.3N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z 17.1N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA