000
WTPZ44 KNHC 042038
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013
 
ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON...DALILA BARELY QUALIFIES
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT 
AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA AND A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS.  DRY AIR AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN OVER SSTS OF 26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.  DALIA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
 
DALILA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS AT MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN DALIA AND 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  THIS IS LIKELY TO 
CAUSE THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DECELERATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 17.3N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 17.3N 111.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 17.5N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z 17.8N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1800Z 18.3N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN