000
WTPZ44 KNHC 041455
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013
 
DRY AIR AND EASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DALILA AS THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAS DIMINISHED VERY QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
35 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND EARLIER
OSCAT DATA.  ALTHOUGH DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY
WARM SSTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THE DRY AIR AND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.  DALILA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP.
 
DALILA APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR 265
DEGREES AT 6 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
SHIFTS EASTWARD.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT DALILA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD INTERACT WITH THE NEW
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST.  BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...
THE TRACK DURING THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 17.4N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 17.3N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 17.4N 111.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 17.7N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z 18.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z 18.8N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN