000
WTPZ44 KNHC 040239
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
800 PM PDT WED JUL 03 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS REVEALS THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN OF DALILA IS DETERIORATING FAST. AN SSMI/S MICROWAVE
PASS...AROUND 0000 UTC...SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
REMOVED FROM A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...
LATEST AVAILABLE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS COULD BE
LOWER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER...SINCE I INHERITED A 60-KNOT
STORM...I WOULD RATHER LOWER THE WINDS GRADUALLY...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT DRY AND STABLE AIR IS
ALREADY AFFECTING THE CIRCULATION...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS
INCREASING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
WEAKENING...BUT THIS PROCESS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST.

DALILA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE DAY...TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE
ON A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 17.6N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 17.4N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 17.6N 112.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 18.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0000Z 19.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA