000
WTPZ44 KNHC 031442
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
800 AM PDT WED JUL 03 2013
 
DALILA APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERGONE ANOTHER STRUCTURAL
TRANSFORMATION...AND A 0935 UTC MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM TRMM INDICATED
THAT THE INNER-CORE HAD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.  A
CONSENSUS OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT
1200 UTC IS ABOUT 70 KT...HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A
LITTLE SINCE THEN...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 65
KT.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND SUGGESTS
THAT DALILA WILL REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS.  AFTER THAT...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE DALILA
MOVES INTO AN AREA OF COLDER WATER AND STRONGER SHEAR...AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTIC OUTPUT.  DALILA IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CENTER OF DALILA REMAINS DIFFICULT TO FIND...HOWEVER
EXTRAPOLATING THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AS
INDICATED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS YIELDS AN ESTIMATED
MOTION OF 240/3.  DALILA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE TURNING TO THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH PROPAGATES EASTWARD.  THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE STILL
VARIES GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY DALILA WILL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THAT OF
THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER FOR THIS STORM THUS FAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 17.8N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 17.6N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 17.2N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 17.1N 111.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 19.0N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY