000
WTPZ44 KNHC 022032
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013
 
A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES...RECEIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF
THE 1500 UTC ADVISORY...SHOWED THAT THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF
DALILA BECAME SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER DEFINED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. IN PARTICULAR...1335 UTC WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THAT
THAT AN EYE HAD DEVELOPED.  THAT PASS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER OF DALILA WAS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION.  A
RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS STILL PRESENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME FAIRLY SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF MICROWAVE-ADJUSTED
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE UPWARD
SHIFT IN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALTHOUGH IT
NOW LIES ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE.  DALILA IS STILL
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A
DRIER ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER WATERS.
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO LOCATE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN.  IN THE SHORT RANGE...A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF DALILA IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPART A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE REMAINS A VERY
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE NOT COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE GFS STILL SHOWS A
GENERALLY WESTWARD-MOVING STRONG CYCLONE...WHILE THE ECMWF
FORECASTS A SOUTHWARD-MOVING WEAK LOW.  GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF
DALILA...MORE CREDENCE IS BEING GIVEN TO THE FORMER SCENARIO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 18.4N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 18.3N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 18.0N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 17.7N 108.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 17.5N 109.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 18.0N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY