000
WTPZ44 KNHC 021804
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DALILA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013
 
THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF DALILA.  A
COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL EYE...AND A FAINT
EYE IS SEEN IN HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.  BASED ON
THESE IMAGES...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  BASED ON THE
NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO
AS IT INTERACTS WITH DRIER AIR AND THE DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST.

THE CENTER POSITION IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED TRACK...SO THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD A
LITTLE.  OTHERWISE THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1800Z 18.3N 107.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 18.0N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 17.8N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 17.0N 110.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY