000
WTPZ44 KNHC 010834
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
200 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW FEW HOURS AS INDICATED BY IR IMAGERY. THE OUTFLOW IS
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED
BANDING FEATURES. A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KNOTS. DALILA STILL
HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
NEITHER SHIPS NOR LGEM MODELS ARE VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
DALILA...AND IN FACT...THE LATEST HWRF ONLY INCREASES THE WIND
SLIGHTLY. BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS
FOR DALILA TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS...BUT THIS IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY TO OCCUR.  

DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SOON FORCE DALILA TO TAKE A
MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT SINCE
SOME MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF DALILA...AND
SUGGEST THAT DALILA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NEW DISTURBANCE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES...BEYOND 3 DAYS...THAT DALILA INSTEAD
WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

IF THE TREND TOWARD THE WEST CONTINUES AND DALILA DOES NOT INTENSIFY
MUCH MORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO WILL LIKELY NO
LONGER BE REQUIRED.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 17.2N 105.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 18.0N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 18.5N 106.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 18.8N 107.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 18.9N 108.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 19.0N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 19.0N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA