000
WTPZ44 KNHC 300836
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE
MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ON THIS
BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 35 KNOTS.  

ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL IS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSING SMALL SHEAR OVER
DALILA...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE CAUSING SLIGHT SHEAR. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED
WEST OF DALILA WEAKENS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SHIPS MODEL IS NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC WITH DALILA...AND
ONLY SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION. HWRF AND FL STATE SUPERENSEMBLE
MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER CYCLONE.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/9 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...DALILA WILL SOON ENCOUNTER A LARGE DEVELOPING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
IN FACT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OF THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE CYCLONE
TO THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS MODEL TREND...BUT
SINCE IT IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY
LATER TODAY.       
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 14.6N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 15.9N 103.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 16.8N 104.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 17.6N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 18.3N 106.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 19.3N 108.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 19.3N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA