000
WTPZ44 KNHC 010846
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012
 
THE CIRCULATION OF ILEANA IS OVER COOL WATERS...ABOUT 24 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...AND ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN A FEW BANDS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEAKENING TREND...AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ILEANA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SOONER.

ILEANA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED AND IS RAPIDLY BECOMING A SHALLOW
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 22.7N 117.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 23.0N 119.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 23.0N 121.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 23.0N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0600Z 23.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/0600Z 23.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA