000
WTPZ44 KNHC 010238
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012
 
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ILEANA...THE TROPICAL STORM STILL HAS WELL-DEFINED BANDING
FEATURES. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER. BASED
ON THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS LOWERED A LITTLE TO 55 KT. ILEANA IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C
WATERS...AND THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WATER AND MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WITH
DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME
ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS NEAR 21C.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/7. A GRADUAL BEND TO THE WEST IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. ONCE
ILEANA BECOMES SHALLOW IN NATURE...IT WILL LIKELY TURN A LITTLE
SOUTH OF DUE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 22.6N 116.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 23.0N 117.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 23.3N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 23.5N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0000Z 23.6N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/0000Z 23.7N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0000Z 23.5N 129.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI