000
WTPZ44 KNHC 311452
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012
 
THE EYE OF ILEANA IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...
BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK NEAR THE CENTER
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS
ILEANA BEGINS TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A STABLE
AIRMASS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THIS CYCLE AND
IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07...AS ILEANA HAS JOGGED A
LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES NUDGES WEST TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ILEANA BECOMES A
REMNANT LOW AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION BUT NOW LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWARD-SHIFTING TVCE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ALSO FASTER AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/1500Z 22.0N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 22.6N 116.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 23.1N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 23.5N 119.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 23.8N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1200Z 24.3N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/1200Z 24.5N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1200Z 24.5N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN