000
WTPZ44 KNHC 310848
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012
 
A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF ILEANA IS ALREADY OVER
COOLER WATERS...AND CONSEQUENTLY MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT
ILEANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND BECOME INVOLVED WITH STABLE AIR...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
WEAKENING.

ILEANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. 
TRACK MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AT ALL...WITH SOME MOVING ILEANA
NORTHWARD AND OTHERS KEEPING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. SINCE ILEANA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE...THERE IS A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL TURN WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 21.8N 114.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 23.1N 116.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 24.0N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 24.5N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/0600Z 24.5N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA